Category: Economics

Retailers Dead Money as Economic Cycle in Later Stages – Barclays

Barclays came out negative on the U.S. Retail Broadlines/Hardlines sector in a report Thursday entitled “It’s About to Get a lot Harder.”

Analyst Matthew McClintock sees an asymmetric risk profile for investors at this stage of the economic cycle.  They highlighted that revolving consumer credit has accelerated at the same time retails sales have decelerated.  This, according to the analyst, suggests we are at the later stages of the economic cycle. Continue reading “Retailers Dead Money as Economic Cycle in Later Stages – Barclays”

Tame Wage Pressure Suggests Inflation Pickup Only Temporary

Data in February showed core PCE inflation is up 1.7%, which would be just below the Fed’s target of 2%.  However, Deutsche Bank economist Joseph Lavorgna believes that the recent pickup in core inflation is temporary because it has not occurred alongside any noticeable increase in wage pressures.

He highlights that average hourly earnings, the employment cost index and worker compensation have all been trending sideways.

Continue reading “Tame Wage Pressure Suggests Inflation Pickup Only Temporary”